No surveys. No biases. Only truth from billions of transactions. Actionable Insights with Retail Media.
The shopping pattern in September 2025 is clear: demand didn’t slow, it reorganized. Shopper behavior shifted by life stage, mission, hour of the day, and category priorities, revealing a market that is now highly intentional, value-aware, and mission-driven.
Based on 100% real transactions, in-store and online. No panels. No projections. Just reality.
* Over 140 million anonymized retail transactions analyzed. Based on actual behavioral and sales data, both in-stores and online.
What Shaped September
September was defined by behavioral compression: demand didn’t fall, it concentrated. Shopper dynamics tightened around routine, value, and functional needs, reshaping category performance and the commercial opportunity for brands:
- Household control intensified - women shaped consumption agendas.
Women generated 72% of all shopping activity, confirming a persistent and widening gender gap in purchase influence. But what changed in September is mission dominance: female-led baskets shifted from indulgence back to home provisioning. This aligns with a +8–12% uplift month-over-month in categories tied to pantry planning and home meals (sugar, flour, oil, canned essentials).
- The mid-economy tightened spend - but did not reduce trips.
The 25–34 age group remained the largest shopper base, followed by 45–54. Both grew their relative share of visits versus low-income dependent segments. But neither expanded basket value — they optimized it. Transaction counts held up, but there was visible downtrading inside categories rather than out of them.
- Autumn behavior arrived early - weeks before last year.
Cold-season categories began accelerating in September, not October. The signs are early and clear:
Soups, broths, jar foods, tea, and seasonal preserved goods all show positive MoM momentum. Stock-up style missions rose, even though promotional intensity was not yet at October–November levels.
This early shift shows higher economic anxiety: when uncertainty rises, families prepare sooner.
- Time-of-day demand shifted to value-driven slots.
Sales peaked between 16:00–20:00, signaling increasing mission efficiency — fewer exploratory morning trips, more late-day purposeful visits. Consumers combine home–work–store routes and minimize trip friction.
- Category hierarchy reorganized around function and affordability.
Top categories by sales value concentration were fresh food, dairy, bakery, water, and soft drinks. But inside them: Premium sublines lost share. Multi-pack and private label grew. Impulse collapsed (Snacks, Sweets, Gum) MoM.
The category ranking didn’t flip, the value structure inside categories did.
What Just Changed. And Why It Matters.
- Essential demand strengthened and consolidated
Categories tied to home meals and pantry stability gained share in September. Shelf-stable essentials like sugar (+63.8% MoM), pickled foods (+68% MoM), flour, oil rose together.
Why it matters: This is not seasonal. This is basket defense behavior, households are insulating against price uncertainty by securing food basics first. - Mission-driven shopping intensified
Top-up missions and Planned grocery trips dominated the month. Frequency held, but baskets became more intentional and less exploratory.
Why it matters: The shopper is no longer browsing, they’re executing. Categories must earn a role per mission or they are sidelined. - Spend stayed in category, shifted in format
The big shift wasn’t category exit, it was intra-category reallocation. Shoppers stayed loyal to categories, but rebalanced inside them toward formats delivering value: larger packs, functional basics, household-first choices.
Why it matters: Growth now depends on format strategy as much as brand strategy. You don’t lose because of category decline, you lose because someone else fits the shopper logic better inside the category.
Dan Marc
Brands That Moved the Market
- Market drivers are concentrated: the top brands captured a disproportionate share of September’s value, signaling high brand gravity in routine baskets.
- Momentum is hierarchical, not flat: there’s a clear spread between Market Drivers and Strong Contenders, indicating meaningful headroom for tier-2 brands to climb by tightening their role in core missions (planned grocery, top-up).
- Actionable truth: in September, scale equaled access to the basket. The brands at the top didn’t just benefit from category size; they benefited from fit with weekly routines.
How Shoppers Chose: Category Dynamics
Top 5 Growth Categories (MoM):
Why it matters:
September signaled a return to structured, home-centered consumption. Households shifted from summer spontaneity to routine meal planning, lifting pantry essentials like pickled foods, sugar, and core cooking ingredients. Protein demand stayed strong but moved toward affordable options such as turkey, showing budget-conscious substitution rather than reduced consumption. Traditional spirits gained momentum as social routines resumed after holidays, proving that cultural consumption moments stay resilient even in value-driven periods.
Top 5 Declining Categories (MoM):
Why it matters:
Summer-driven categories like ice cream, fruits, and sun care declined sharply as families transitioned back indoors and temperatures dropped. Frozen meat slowed as shoppers reduced stockpiling behavior, favoring fresh and planned purchases. Beef weakened due to price sensitivity, confirming downtrading inside proteins. These declines don’t reflect reduced demand overall; they reflect seasonal normalization and economic reprioritization inside the basket.
How Shoppers Chose: Product by Product
Category Sales Highlights
This section highlights the Month-over-Month (MoM%) sales evolution across major product categories. It shows how consumer demand shifted from the previous month, offering a snapshot of rising and falling trends at category level.
Where the Money Went: Category by Category
In September, money moved back to the kitchen. Spend concentrated in pantry essentials, affordable proteins, and everyday meal builders, while seasonal and discretionary categories lost share. Shoppers didn’t reduce consumption - they reorganized their baskets around value, planning, and meal utility, signaling a disciplined, purpose-led month across categories.
The heatmap reveals clear shopping patterns across the week, highlighting how consumers time their purchases:
Meat & Processed Meats
Dairy & Eggs
Bakery & Sweets
Base Foods & Cooking Ingredients
Beverages
Fruits & Vegetables
Home Care & Cleaning
Who Is Buying – Life Stage & Demographics
Real transactions, not surveys. Below is who drove September: by life stage, age, gender, city, and shopping mission.
By Life Stage
By Age
By Gender
By City
By Shopping Mission
The Data Disagrees
What everyone thinks… and what’s actually happening
- The narrative says shoppers are cutting back. The data says they are not. They are reorganizing.
- The narrative says price kills brand loyalty. The data says category loyalty is still strong, but shoppers now trade formats, not needs.
- The narrative says retail slows after summer. The data shows demand stayed active, with spend shifting to pantry security and home meals earlier than expected.
- The narrative says promotions drive decisions. The data shows missions drive decisions. Shoppers enter stores with purpose, not to browse discounts.
- The narrative says shoppers are unpredictable. The data proves behavior follows structure. Life stage and mission now predict what enters the basket with over 70% consistency.
ACTIONABLE RETAIL MEDIA INSIGHTS FOR BRANDS
- Target missions, not demographics
Most buying decisions came from Top-Up and Planned Grocery missions. Campaigns that align creative + offer + timing to missions will outperform generic reach strategies. - Win the basket from the inside
September showed intra-category trade-offs; shoppers stayed in categories but changed formats and price tiers. Brands must defend share inside their category, not just compete for awareness. - Reach shoppers when decisions actually happen
Peak buying happened between 16:00–20:00. Brands that activate in this window gain disproportionate share of wallet. Daypart matters more than frequency. - Convert female decision power
With 72% of shopping influence driven by women, campaigns must prioritize contextual relevance for female-led missions (family meals, weekly planning, household continuity). - Align with economic reality, not discounts
The shift to value-secure formats shows shoppers still buy, if brands justify price. Framing value per use beats price cuts in today’s market. - Use retail media to intercept intent, not chase it
Shelf-level and mission-timed activations outperform upper-funnel media because intent is highest inside the store. The brands that activate closest to decision win share faster.
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