Imagine a shopper's cart as a puzzle: basket incidence shows how often your product fits right in. It's the key to proving your ads aren't just seen, but bought. Let's make this simple, clear, and actionable, like an Apple product: intuitive and effective.

How Basket Incidence is Defined

Basket Incidence = Number of shopping baskets (or carts) that include your product (SKU) or brand ÷ Total number of baskets in a specific time, store group, or customer segment.

It's the percentage of trips where shoppers pick you. Higher incidence means more sales, bigger market share, and better returns from your ads.

Why It Matters for Your Business

If more shoppers add you to their basket, everything snowballs: more units sold, higher market share, and stronger return on ad spend (ROAS). Why? Basket incidence is the closest metric to actual cash register rings that retail media can influence daily. It's not about clicks or views, it's about real buys.

What Basket Incidence Really Tells You

At its heart, basket incidence measures choice: how often shoppers select you during a trip. It's a "choice rate," not a click rate. Here's how it breaks down, with simple types:

• Absolute Incidence (for your SKU or Brand): Baskets with your item ÷ Total baskets. (E.g., 5% means you're in 1 out of 20 carts.)
• Relative Incidence (vs. Your Category): Baskets with your item ÷ Baskets with any category item. (Shows your share within the category.)
• Category Incidence Overall: Baskets with the category ÷ Total baskets. (Measures category popularity per trip.)
• Conditional Incidence: Probability your item is in the basket if the category (or another item) is there. (E.g., Chance of buying your protein bar if yogurt is already in.)
• Cross-Incidence or Attach Rate: Baskets with both Item A and B ÷ Total baskets. (Great for bundles, like chips and dip.)
• Incidence by Basket Size: How you perform in small (1-3 items), medium (4-7), or large (8+) baskets. (Where do you shine?)
• Incremental Incidence: Post-ad incidence minus pre-ad (or vs. a control group). (Proves your campaign worked.)

So what? This metric cuts through noise. It's the purest way to see if retail media shifted actual buying behavior, beyond just ad metrics like impressions.

Why Basket Incidence Fits Perfectly with Retail Media

Footprints AI's retail media closes the loop: See an ad? Track the sale. It uses real shopper data to hit at key moments, called Category Entry Points (CEPs); like "post-workout hunger" sparking a protein buy.

Align your ads like this:

• Message: Call out the CEP (e.g., "Fuel up after the gym").
• Timing: Hit during the moment (e.g., 5-8 PM near fitness spots).
• Measurement: Track incidence lift vs. similar non-exposed shoppers.

The ROAS link is straightforward: Incremental Revenue = (Change in Incidence) × (Total Baskets) × (Average Units per Basket) × (Price per Unit) ROAS = Incremental Revenue ÷ Ad Spend

How Footprints AI Breaks Down Basket Incidence

Footprints AI turns raw data into clear insights, making incidence easy to track, compare, and predict. We look at it through key lenses:

Scopes and Levels:

• By product: SKU, sub-brand, brand, pack size, price level.
• By location: Store, group, chain, type (big box, convenience).
• By channel: In-store screens, online ads, off-site targeting, email.
• By time: Weekdays, hours, pay periods, seasons.

People and Missions:

• Demographics: Families with kids, students, seniors.
• Areas: City centers, suburbs, rural spots, tourist areas.
• Trip types: Big stock-ups, quick fills, emergency grabs, treats, explorations.
• Occasions (our CEPs): Sweet Friday treats, Lunch Rush, Game Night snacks, Post-Workout boosts, Sunday resets.
• Loyalty segments: Recent buyers, frequent shoppers, high-spenders.

Comparisons:

• Absolute vs. relative (your share in the pond).
• Category overall (is the pond growing?).
• Conditional/cross (what pairs well?).
• By basket size (win in big carts?).
• With price sensitivity and stock checks (avoid pitfalls).

Footprints AI's "Retail Media Recipes" to Boost Incidence

Think of a recipe as a step-by-step playbook: Tie the who, when, where, and what to lift incidence reliably. It's about building habits, not one-offs.

Each recipe covers:

1. Occasion/CEP: E.g., Post-Workout (5-8 PM, near gyms).
2. Audience/Life Stage: Gym-goers, young pros/students.
3. Store/Channel Mix: Screens by protein aisle, search ads for "protein," geo-targeted off-site.
4. Creative: Name the moment (e.g., "Protein right by the gym").
5. Products: Main item, trial size, or bundle (bar + drink).
6. Timing/Frequency: Hour rules, caps to avoid overload.
7. Shelf Checks: Ensure stock, alert if low.
8. KPIs: Incidence lift (in percentage points), per 1K views, attach rates, new buyers, ROAS.
9. Forecast: Predicted lift by location/week, with ranges.
10. Safeguards: Pause if stock drops or ROAS dips.

Smart Targeting Add-Ons:

• Predict visits and buys to time ads perfectly.
• Use life stages and missions to pick responsive folks.
• Blend offline/online data anonymously for seamless reach.
• Swap messages dynamically by time, place, occasion.

How Footprints AI Tracks Your Progress

We focus on real impact:

• Main Metrics: Extra incidence (percentage points), per 1,000 ad views.
• Supporting Ones: Units per trip, attach rates, new-to-brand buyers, average cart value.
• Health Checks: Stock levels, price vs. competitors, shelf space.
• Setup: Control groups, before/after, weekly stats with reliability bands.
• Reports: ROAS by occasion, location, audience, channel.

Name the occasion. Hit at the right window. Count the new carts. Scale what works.

Basket incidence proves your retail media sparked real buys. Footprints AI makes it practical: Deep analysis, precise predictions, and recipes that shift habits: by moment, person, place, and time.