No surveys. No biases. Only truth from billions of transactions. Actionable Insights with Retail Media.
The shopping pattern in October 2025 is clear: demand didn’t slow, it shifted. Family life stages (Full Nest I, Full Nest II and DINKs) and short, purpose-led trips (Immediate/Urgency and Fill-in missions) dominated, with spending concentrated in late afternoon and early evening and a clear reallocation towards colder-season, at-home categories. Shoppers are highly intentional, time-sensitive, and mission-driven.
Based on 100% real transactions, in-store and online. No panels. No projections. Just reality.
* Over 150 million anonymized retail transactions analyzed. Based on actual behavioral and sales data, both in-stores and online.
What Shaped October
- Family life stages dominated demand. Almost 6 in 10 shoppers came from Full Nest I, Full Nest II and DINKs (57.8% of all customers), making family and dual-income households the core driver of sales and retail media reach.
- Short, mission-led trips defined how people shopped. Immediate / Urgency and Fill-in missions together accounted for 48.9% of all visits, showing a market built around quick, purposeful trips rather than big, occasional stock-ups.
- Afternoon and evening concentrated most of the money. Nearly 4 out of 5 euro were spent after 13:00, with almost one in three between 16:00 and 20:00 alone (28.6% of daily sales value). Retail media impact is heavily skewed towards late afternoon and early evening.
- Mid- and late-week became the real shopping week. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday concentrated just over 49% of weekly sales, with Friday alone capturing 17.6% of total spend. Campaigns that are not visible mid-to-late week simply miss half of the market.
- The basket shifted from summer drinks to autumn cooking. Fruits & Vegetables (+14.9% volume MoM), Dairy & Eggs (+12.2%) and Bakery & Sweets (+8.0%) all grew, while Beverages declined (-3.4% volume). Pickles, honey, syrups, jams, eggs and dairy showed some of the strongest category uplifts, signalling more at-home cooking and colder-season habits.
- Summer indulgences cooled down fast. Ice cream and desserts, seasonal categories, ice tea, sugar, beer and water all declined in volume, with ice cream and desserts dropping by almost 69% MoM and beer by around 19%. October baskets clearly reallocated spend from cold, summer-driven refreshment to warm, meal-centric categories.
What Just Changed. And Why It Matters.
This month’s data is clear: shoppers haven’t slowed down. They’ve completed the pivot into autumn. If a product doesn’t serve cold-season, at-home missions, it will struggle to justify its place in the basket.
- Cold-season food replaced summer refreshment as the growth engine.
Volume growth came from the kitchen, not the fridge door. Fruits & Vegetables grew by +14.9% MoM, Dairy & Eggs by +12.2% and Bakery & Sweets by +8.0%, while Beverages as a macro-category declined (-3.4% MoM). Within food, the biggest uplifts came from pickles (+63.6%), honey (+42.9%), syrups (+36.9%), jams (+36.0%), eggs (+34.0%), dairy (+28.6%) and meat cuts like beef and pork (both around +28.5%).
Why it matters: Households have fully moved into autumn mode. Growth now comes from meal builders and at-home cooking, not cold drinks. Brands in fresh, dairy, bakery and cooking ingredients have a window to lock in new habits before Christmas promotions reset the game.
- Summer-linked categories unwound hard, even if total demand stayed high.
The sharpest declines came from categories that owned the summer: Ice cream and desserts fell by -68.9% MoM, “Seasons” by -63.9%, turkey meat by -57.3%, sugar by -37.4%, ice tea by -20.6%, beer by -19.2% and water by -16.7%. Even Home Care Products (-15.4%) and classic detergents / bleaches / fabric softeners (-16.5%) lost volume as households normalized post-summer stock-ups.
Why it matters: This is not a crisis, it’s a reallocation. Budgets and retail media shouldn’t fight to artificially extend summer. They should follow the shopper into colder-season routines: warm meals, preserved foods, and home-based consumption.
- Mission logic shifted from stock-up defense to fast, purpose-led trips.
Almost half of all trips in October were short and highly intentional: Immediate / Urgency (28.3%) plus Fill-in missions (20.6%) together accounted for 48.9% of visits. Classic Stock-up missions sat at just 12.4%, with Routine / Replenishment at 10.7% and Gift Shopping and Discovery together below 16%.
Why it matters: Shoppers are not in “big pantry build” mode anymore; they are in “keep the household running today” mode. Retail media that intercepts Immediate and Fill-in missions (right mission, right time-of-day, right category) will outperform broad, generic messaging.
- Value stayed inside categories, but shoppers rewired which essentials they protect.
In September, sugar and classic pantry staples were the defensive core. In October, protection moved to fresh and preserved meal components: pickles, jams, honey, dairy, eggs, meat and vegetables. At the same time, sugar and summer beverages gave back volume.
Why it matters: “Essential” is a moving target. Brands that assume last month’s hero categories will stay protected are exposed. The winners are those that continually re-position themselves as non-negotiable in the next month’s basket logic.
Dan Marc
Brands That Moved the Market
- October didn’t reward everyone equally. Brands that leaned into autumn cooking, at-home meals and everyday family missions gained share and volume, while those still anchored in summer refreshment or occasional indulgence gave ground.
- The winners were the ones that showed up where demand actually moved: fresh, dairy, bakery and preserved foods, timed to late-afternoon and early-evening missions. The contenders are close behind, but the data is clear – brands that follow the season and the mission now set the pace for the rest of the market.
How Shoppers Chose: Category Dynamics
October was the month when categories fully pivoted from summer refreshment to autumn meals. Growth came from the kitchen and the pantry, while summer-linked and “hot season” categories unwound sharply.
Top 5 Growth Categories (MoM):
Top 5 Declining Categories (MoM):
How Shoppers Chose: Product by Product
Behind every category curve, shoppers voted SKU by SKU. In October, a small set of products became non-negotiable in the basket: the go-to eggs, the trusted dairy brands, the everyday breads, the “must-have” meal helpers, while many summer and impulse items quietly lost their place. This section zooms in from categories to individual products, showing exactly which SKUs shoppers protected, which they traded into, and which they left behind.
Category Sales Highlights
This section highlights the Month-over-Month (MoM%) sales evolution across major product categories. It shows how consumer demand shifted from the previous month, offering a snapshot of rising and falling trends at category level.
Where the Money Went: Category by Category
October didn’t just change how much people spent, it changed where every euro went. Money moved out of summer refreshment and into meal-building categories – meat, dairy, bakery, fruits & vegetables and preserved foods – with most of that spend landing mid-to-late week and in the late afternoon. This section breaks down how the budget was redistributed, category by category, across days, dayparts and missions.
The charts reveal clear shopping patterns across the week, highlighting when consumers time their purchases:
Meat & Processed Meats
Dairy & Eggs
Bakery & Sweets
Base Foods & Cooking Ingredients
Beverages
Fruits & Vegetables
Home Care & Cleaning
Who Is Buying – Life Stage & Demographics
Below is who drove sales in October 2025: by life stage, age, gender, city, and shopping mission.
By Life Stage
By Age
By Gender
By City
By Shopping Mission
The Data Disagrees
What everyone thinks… and what’s actually happening
- Myth 1: “People cut back in October.”
Reality: They didn’t spend less – they spent differently. Fruits & Vegetables (+14.9% volume), Dairy & Eggs (+12.2%) and Bakery & Sweets (+8.0%) grew, while ice cream, seasonal items and summer drinks unwound. The budget moved from summer refreshment to autumn meals, not out of the store. - Myth 2: “Stock-up missions drive most of the market.”
Reality: Almost half of all trips were short and precise. Immediate / Urgency and Fill-in missions together accounted for 48.9% of visits, while Stock-up sat at just 12.4%. The market is built on “solve today’s problem” missions, not on big occasional hauls. - Myth 3: “Weekends are when retail media really matters.”
Reality: The real retail week runs Wednesday to Friday. These three days captured just over 49% of weekly sales, with Friday alone at 17.6%. If campaigns wait for the weekend to show up, they miss the moment when households actually lock in the week’s meals. - Myth 4: “Mornings are the core shopping window.”
Reality: Almost 4 in 5 euro were spent after 13:00, and 16:00–20:00 alone captured around 28.6% of daily sales value. That’s when mission-led, meal-building baskets are assembled – and when retail media has the highest chance to change what goes in. - Myth 5: “Price is the only thing that matters now.”
Reality: Shoppers didn’t just chase the cheapest option – they protected specific roles in the basket. Pickles (+63.6%), honey (+42.9%), syrups (+36.9%), jams (+36.0%), eggs (+34.0%), dairy (+28.6%) and key meat cuts all grew strongly. Mission fit and meal relevance beat pure price in deciding what stayed “non-negotiable” in October.
ACTIONABLE RETAIL MEDIA INSIGHTS FOR BRANDS
- Follow the autumn meal, not the summer fridge.
Shift budget into where volume actually moved: Fruits & Vegetables, Dairy & Eggs, Bakery & Sweets, meat, pickles, jams, honey and syrups. Build campaigns around at-home meals and colder-season routines, not around refreshing drinks. Use these categories as anchors for in-store screens, audio and on-site placements. - Design for Immediate and Fill-in missions first.
Almost half of all trips were short, purpose-driven. Structure campaigns to solve “tonight’s dinner” and “we’re missing one thing” missions: simple creatives, clear product role in the meal, and single-minded CTAs. Target audiences by recent visits and basket content, not just by broad demographics. - Concentrate spend where shoppers actually shop: Wed–Fri, 16:00–20:00.
Treat Wednesday–Friday and late afternoon–evening as the primary retail media prime-time. Increase impression weights and frequency in these windows and reduce low-yield exposure in quiet mornings or early week. For the same budget, shifting delivery into these peaks will lift both reach quality and sales impact. - Protect your hero SKUs in rising categories.
Eggs, key dairy items, main meat cuts, fresh produce and preserved “helpers” became non-negotiable in October baskets. Use retail media to make your core SKUs the automatic choice: consistent presence on in-store screens near the shelf, on-site search and recommendation placements, plus retargeting around these products for repeat purchase. - Measure what matters: missions, baskets and new buyers, not just impressions.
For all campaigns, track:- Incremental sales in growth categories
- Basket incidence (how often your brand enters the mission-driven basket)
- New-to-brand shoppers in key life stages (Full Nest, DINKs)
- Reframe declining summer categories instead of forcing volume.
For ice cream, seasonal lines, summer drinks and beer, avoid “more of the same” summer messaging. Either:- Reposition for new occasions (at-home dessert, family movie night, mixing with hot drinks), or
- Move to a defensive strategy that protects loyal buyers with smart frequency and cross-promotions into growing food categories.
Over-investing here will underperform versus following the autumn basket.
